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John Laurie's avatar

Depressing, isn’t it? A planet-sized Ozymandias.

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paqnation's avatar

Whew, that was a long one. Excellent job Jan!

For me it all comes down to full consciousness, which cannot be achieved without involving fire. Nothing with a Sapien level of awareness will ever be able to fit in with the web of life. This helps me with accepting that we really do need to go away... ASAP

"We are the ultimate invasive species, a cancer on Earth."

Yes, but every life form in the universe would be going down our same path if capable (the good ole MPP). So technically, it's not humans that are the ultimate invasive species, it's Life. But it can't be an all-out cancer on Earth unless fire enters the picture.

So the cancerous doomsday clock doesn't begin until fire. Let's say you were an interstellar traveling space alien, and your job was to survey the planets that have complex life to study & predict if/when life on that planet will cause a self-induced mass extinction... well, if fire hasn't been harnessed on that planet, then you'll probably predict that there's no threat. (unless you see a species that just recently got out of the trees and is now starting to walk upright, freeing up a couple of limbs that have opposable thumbs attached... for that you might predict 5 million years or so).

But if control of the flame has shown up on that planet (even just a little bit), then your alien job is easy peasy. Trace fire back to when it started and make your prediction for 1-2 million years from that date. Two things will be required to guarantee your correct: some luck with survival (especially bottleneck events) and an eventual Holocene type period of climate stability... And if fire usage is already widespread on that planet (especially cooking) but no agriculture yet, then you can confidently predict that they are about 10-20k years away from their mass extinction moment as soon as agriculture finally starts up.

And just to leave you with some entertainment. Here is my latest fantasy for ending all current and future suffering in our solar system forever. https://un-denial.com/2025/06/06/what-should-can-could-will-we-do/#comment-112587

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Oli G.'s avatar

Jan, you're not alone, and we're there with you, not that it changes anything to the outcomes. "Valar morghulis" - all men must die... What can we learn from people / friends having a prognosis of likely earlier than expected death? -> cultivate what brings you true inner joy and peace, and spend time with the people and natural places that count for you.

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Rupe's avatar

Congrats for getting part 4 out at last - an excellent analysis as always. Looking forward to part 5 in the next couple of weeks ;)

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Hillary Sillitto's avatar

Lemmings come to mind.

It's not much fun being Cassandra, is it? Stay strong, there is still much beauty on this earth.

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Dopamine Musings's avatar

Fantastic! Worth the wait.

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Economy-Fee5830's avatar

Insightless diatribe which does not understand that not all problems are equal, and that it is perfectly valid to replace a large problem with a smaller problem and still come out ahead.

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Klin's avatar

I didn't expect less from you, Jan. We're still here, sharing the pain and trying to cope with beautiful, tiny things...

A hug for you. Keep sharing your thoughts.

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